Risk, ambiguity, and decision

Daniel Ellsberg

Ellsberg elaborates on "Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms" and mounts a powerful challenge to the dominant theory of rational decision in this book.

「Nielsen BookData」より

[目次]

  • Acknowledgments
  • Note to Reader
  • Foreword, Isaac Levi
  • 1. Ambiguity and Risk
  • Vagueness, Confidence, and the Weight of Arguments
  • The Nature and Uses of Normative Theory
  • The Validation of Normative Propositions
  • The Utility Axioms as Norms
  • Normative Theory and Empirical Research
  • 2. The Bernoulli Proposition
  • A Possible Counterexample: Are there Uncertainties that are Not Risks?
  • Vulgar Evaluations of Risk
  • 3. The Measurement of Definite Opinions
  • von Neumann-Morgenstern Utilities
  • Probability as Price
  • "Coherence" and "Definiteness" of Probability-Prices
  • Appendix to Chapter Three
  • On Making a Fool of Oneself: The Requirement of Coherence
  • Acceptable Odds: Definite, Coherent, and Otherwise
  • 4. Opinions and Actions: Which Come First?
  • The Logic of Degrees of Belief
  • Opinions that Make Horse Races
  • Postulate 2: the "Sure-Thing Principle"
  • Intuitive Probabilities and "Vagueness"
  • Appendix to Chapter Four
  • The Savage Postulates
  • The Koopman Axioms
  • 5. Uncertainties that are Not Risks
  • The "Three-Color Urn" Example
  • Vulgar Evaluations of Ambiguity
  • Appendix to Chapter Five
  • 6. Why Are Some Uncertainties Not Risks?
  • Decision Criteria for "Complete Ignorance"
  • Decision Criteria for "Partial Ignorance"
  • 7. The "Restricted Hurwicz Criterion"
  • The "Restricted Bayes/Hurwicz Criterion"
  • Boldness and Prudence: the "n-Color Urn" Example
  • Ignorance, Probability, and Varieties of Gamblers
  • 8. Ambiguity and the Utility Axioms
  • The Pratt/Raiffa Criticisms and the Value of Randomization
  • Rubin's Axiom
  • Allais and the Sure-Thing Principle
  • Winning at Russian Roulette
  • Bibliography

「Nielsen BookData」より

この本の情報

書名 Risk, ambiguity, and decision
著作者等 Levi Isaac
Ellsberg Daniel
シリーズ名 Studies in philosophy
出版元 Garland Pub.
刊行年月 2001
ページ数 liii, 281 p.
大きさ 24 cm
ISBN 0815340222
NCID BA63068104
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言語 英語
出版国 アメリカ合衆国
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